Navigating the Peaks and Valleys of the Australian Housing Market

The Australian housing market is a perennial topic of conversation, and for good reason. It’s a dynamic landscape of soaring highs and notable lows, as perfectly captured in recent data on housing approvals and commencements. By examining the trends from June 2015 to June 2025, we can gain a clearer understanding of the market's recent history and where it might be heading.

A glance at the data reveals a fascinating story. Between 2015 and 2018, both housing approvals and commencements were riding high, hovering around the 220,000 to 240,000 mark. This period of robust activity was followed by a sharp downturn in 2019 and 2020, with numbers dipping to approximately 175,000. This decline reflects a cooling-off period, likely influenced by a confluence of economic factors.

However, the market demonstrated its resilience with a significant rebound, peaking again between 2021 and 2022 at around 230,000. This resurgence was short-lived, as another decline followed, with figures bottoming out between 160,000 and 170,000 in 2023 and 2024. Interestingly, the chart projects an upward trend by mid-2025, with approvals forecast to be near 190,000 and commencements close to 180,000, signalling a potential recovery on the horizon.

This data, sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and ANZ Property, paints a picture of a cyclical market. The close relationship between approvals—the green light for new housing projects—and commencements—the actual start of construction—provides valuable insight into the confidence and capacity of the construction industry. As we move forward, all eyes will be on these indicators to see if the projected recovery holds true, shaping the future of Australian housing.